2018 could see a geopolitical crisis on the scale of the financial crash a decade ago, Eurasia Group has warned in its annual outlook.
Describing global political challenges as “daunting,” the New York-based political risk consultancy said the world is “now closer to geopolitical depression than to a reversion to past stability.” It said the biggest uncertainty surrounds China’s move to fill a vacuum as US influence continues to decline, stoking tensions between the two powers.
“In the 20 years since we started Eurasia Group, the global environment has had its ups and downs,” Eurasia President Ian Bremmer and Chairman Cliff Kupchan wrote in the outlook. “But if we had to pick one year for a big unexpected crisis the geopolitical equivalent of the 2008 financial meltdown — it feels like 2018. Sorry.”
Here are some of Eurasia’s biggest worries in 2018:
1. China’s President Xi Jinping’s successful consolidation of authority is helping him to fill a global power vacuum created by US President Donald Trump’s move away from Washington-led multilateralism. In areas such as trade and investment, technology and values, China is setting international standards with less resistance than ever before.
“For most of the West, China is not an appealing substitute,” Eurasia said. “But for most everybody else, it is a plausible alternative. And with Xi ready and willing to offer that alternative and extend China’s influence, that’s the world’s biggest risk this year.”
There are too many places where a misstep or misjudgment could provoke serious international conflict. Cyberattacks, North Korea, Syria, Russia and terrorism are some of the risks that could trigger a mistake that leads to confrontation.
“We aren’t on the brink of World War III,” Eurasia said. “But absent a global security underwriter, and with a proliferation of subnational and non-state actors capable of destabilizing action, the world is a more dangerous place.”
2. As rapid technological developments reshape the economic and political order; the process will be messy. Fault lines include a struggle for market dominance, fragmentation and a race for new technologies.
“As our cars, homes, factories, and public infrastructure begin to generate mountains of data, and as connectivity morphs into augmented reality, a new generation of humans will be ‘on the grid’ around the clock, with important implications for society and geopolitics,” Eurasia said. “But until we get there, it’s the world’s biggest fight over economic power.”
3. Relations between the US and Iran in 2018 will be a source of broad geopolitical and market risk. If the nuclear deal doesn’t survive the year, the Middle East could be pushed into a real crisis.
“Trump has it in for Iran,” Eurasia said. “Rightly or wrongly, he sees the country as the root of much evil in the world.”
4. Protectionism will make further inroads led by populism, state capitalism and heightened geopolitical tensions. Governments are also intervening in the digital economy and innovation-intensive industries to preserve intellectual property and related technologies.
5. “The rise of anti-establishment movements in developed markets has forced (in some cases, enabled) policy makers to shift toward a more mercantilist approach to global economic competition and to look as if they’re doing something about lost jobs,” Eurasia said. “Walls are going up.”
Jesus said that there would be multiple crises as the world nears the close of probation. As the world becomes less stable, nations are preparing for war.
“Fearful tests and trials await the people of God. The spirit of war is stirring the nations from one end of the earth to the other. But in the midst of the time of trouble that is coming a time of trouble such as has not been since there was a nation—God’s chosen people will stand unmoved. Satan and his host cannot destroy them, for angels that excel in strength will protect them.” Testimonies for the Church, Vol. 9, pages 11-17.
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The world is facing a ‘big, unexpected crisis’ in 2018, says Eurasia Group